The probability of a US recession this year has plunged on Polymarket and Kalshi. Prediction gurus break down what that means ...

The first half of 2025 was tumultuous with long-standing agencies such as U.S. Agency for International Development and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau shuttered or significantly scaled ...

For the moment, businesses, households and financial markets are locked in an elaborate game of wait-and-see. Companies ...

Labor market, consumer spending, and revised GDP data show the economy is facing serious headwinds.

Finance expert George Kamel recently broke down six recession warning signs. GOBankingRates asked finance experts how they ...

Trump's Tariffs Could Wake It, Experts Warn An economic downturn combined with high inflation is a double-whammy for your finances. ... Katherine Watt May 20, 2025 11:00 a.m. PT 8 min read ...

Key Takeaways Mortgage rates usually drop in a recession, but by exactly how much depends on the circumstances of the economic downturn. Although interest rates on mortgages may trend lower in a ...

The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, but it takes more than one bad quarter of GDP for a recession to officially begin.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months.” Three ...

The poll showed that, on average, the forecasters predicted a 45% chance of the economy going into a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% the last time the poll was taken in January.

Economic forecasts turned ominous in recent days, a reaction to the Trump administration’s tariffs and the stock market sell-off. JPMorgan estimated the chance of a recession at 60 percent in a report ...

Here's one definition offered by the NBER: "A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real [i.e ...